The shortage will continue until the first half of next year! This lithium battery subdivision track is on fire again
A reporter from the Shanghai Securities News learned from the industry that under the influence of factors such as insufficient utilization of upstream graphitization capacity and higher-than-expected downstream lithium battery demand, the current domestic anode material market maintains a tight supply, and leading companies have basically filled their orders.
Anode material orders are scheduled to next year
Lithium batteries are composed of positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte and other parts. Among them, the negative electrode material directly affects the energy density of the battery, and its importance to the battery is self-evident. In recent years, artificial graphite anodes have become the mainstream of anode materials, and shipments have accounted for more than 80%.
Regarding the current situation of the anode material market, Chen Ying, secretary of the board of directors of Shanshan Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from the Shanghai Securities News that the company‘s anode material sector is currently full of orders and is basically in a state of short supply. Measures strive to protect customer needs.
Chang Ke, an analyst at Longzhong Information‘s lithium battery department, told a reporter from the Shanghai Securities News that the current lithium battery manufacturers‘ orders for upstream anode materials are basically scheduled to next year, and the anode material inventory level on the market is extremely low. Baichuan Yingfu‘s monitoring showed that as of the third week of November, the domestic lithium battery anode material factory inventory was only 1,720 tons, which is at a historical low. Most companies indicated that the supply is tight and there is no excess inventory.
Data from Longzhong Information show that since the beginning of this year, the price of anode materials has continued to rise, and is currently about 45,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 20% from the beginning of the year.
The source of the shortage of negative electrode materials lies in the graphitization process in the production process.
Graphitization is the core link in the production of artificial graphite anode materials, and its cost accounts for about 55% of the total cost of anode materials. As a high energy consumption industry, the energy consumption of the graphitization industry is subject to key control, which also directly affects its production capacity.
According to Chang Ke‘s analysis, graphitization is a high energy consumption industry, which has been subject to corresponding energy consumption supervision for a long time, and its capacity utilization rate is lower than that of other industries. In the years when downstream demand is flat, the low capacity utilization rate does not affect the overall supply pattern. Inner Mongolia’s graphitization capacity accounts for more than 60% of the country’s total. This year, Inner Mongolia’s electricity curtailment policy has been severely implemented. Since the second half of the year, many places have also introduced energy consumption dual control measures, which has led to a sharp drop in the domestic graphitization capacity utilization rate and intensified negative electrode materials. Tight supply pattern.
"In 2020, compared with the demand for negative electrode materials in the lithium battery market, graphitization capacity is still relatively surplus." Chang Ke said, "and entering 2021, the demand for lithium battery terminal market has exceeded expectations, and demand for negative electrode materials will also skyrocket. The supply of graphitization processing is suddenly difficult to keep up, and the market is in short supply."
The shortage of production capacity has also pushed up the cost of graphitization. Chen Ying introduced that the graphitization processing fee has risen from about 13,000 yuan/ton last year to the current 25,000 yuan/ton, and the price has nearly doubled. In the case of a large capacity gap, the graphitization processing fee quotation will follow the market, and some manufacturers may further increase their prices. Many institutions believe that due to the slow progress in the approval of graphitization processing projects, it will take time to release production capacity. Graphitization processing fees are expected to continue to rise before the end of the year.
Under the combined effect of insufficient graphitization capacity utilization, strong downstream demand, and upward raw material costs, the shortage of anode materials has become increasingly prominent.
Listed companies have entered the market
This year, the big cake of anode materials continues to attract listed companies to enter the market in an attempt to get a share of the pie. For example, the oil service company Jereh announced on November 8 that it plans to implement a 100,000-ton lithium-ion battery anode material integration project in Tianshui City.
And more anode material companies choose upstream and downstream cooperation or layout integration to achieve supply and cost reduction. For example, Beterui announced on October 25 that it intends to establish a joint venture with Shanxi Jundong, Shanxi Aochen and Niu Sufang to build an "integrated production line project with an annual output of 70,000 tons of artificial graphite anode materials."
When receiving surveys from 9 institutions on November 17, Bettere said that most of the company’s current new anode material integration base projects are directly cooperating with graphitization manufacturers, and through deep binding, it locks the graphitization capacity and further enhances the company’s competition. Advantage.
Source: Shanghai Securities News Author: Chen Yukang
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